In this context, even covert operations – which are often undertaken in order to derail or at least to delay structural trends – constitute a tool that can be used to protect the supremacy of the greenback in the coming decades. For instance, the fall of the Roman denarius was not only a key driver in the decline of the Roman Empire. Past is precedent in Israeli election, Secretary-General Guterres warns on the financial stability of the developing world, and troubling signs of a civil war in Myanmar. Companies should assess and monitor how geopolitical relations with China may impact deals and financing in their sector of operation. However, the prospects of an eventual restoration of a gold standard are being discussed nowadays. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Next 100 Years. However, that does not mean that governments will not be able create cryptocurrencies as digital twins of their own paper money. Monitor your product name, brand, competitors, keywords, authors, or any other topics. Actually, elements of them can co-exist. Accordingly, this would likely mean an increased financial Lebensraum for currencies like the euro, the yuan and the pound sterling, amongst others. Local currency blocs could also rapidly constitute regional trade blocs. it must be borne in mind that sometimes countries sacrifice their legitimate economic interests for the sake of victory. Geopoliticalmonitor.com is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2021 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. The recent proliferation of cryptocurrencies – a product of the Fourth Industrial Revolution – is seen by some as a game-changer that has given credence to the idea that, at some point, one of them could eventually become the new dominant global currency. If Beijing wants to remake global finance, then it would need to forge a consensus with other economic heavyweights. This would entail a return to representative money. This sounds almost apocalyptic, but that does not make it impossible. This NPR will aim to build confidence among NPT stakeholders, essentially In other words, it paradoxically represents a self-defeating struggle. We provide research, analysis and up to date coverage on situations and events that have a substantive impact on political, military and economic affairs. Share. This is the most common type of submission we receive at Geopoliticalmonitor.com, as it tends to … Additionally, the ultimate fate of the dollar hegemony depends on foreigners and their willing to underwrite such an “exorbitant privilege” in an interdependent world. This is hardly surprising after the sharp financial crisis that took place a decade ago. If this is enabled, this will transmit speed, location, proximity, and a faster tracking measure by passers or the vessels in real-time. Though short on details, the recent China-Iran deal could one day be looked back on as a seminal moment in the geopolitics of the Middle East. In this scenario, perhaps the golden rule would apply. All of the recent frictions underpinning the US-Philippine alliance are on display in recent attempts to renegotiate the Visiting Forces Agreement. 12 Predictions for Global Geopolitics for 2019 through 2025—and Beyond Across the globe, governments and institutions face increasing threats to their legitimacy and authority. Buy The World Explained in Maps for $24.99. If gold reassumes a central role in worldwide financial markets as a result of a multilateral consensus negotiated amongst the great powers – this could happen in the aftermath of a new major financial crisis of international proportions – some players would evidently be better positioned than others. The recent China-Iran agreement presents Baghdad with a profound geopolitical choice: the United States or China? As a matter of statecraft, China has been assertively promoting the internationalization of the yuan, also known as renminbi, a measure intended to enhance Chinese national power in the realm of finance. Hence, any great power that is interested in crippling the hegemonic role of the greenback needs to carefully calculate the repercussions associated with the geopolitical burden that comes with being the issuer of the world’s dominant currency. Nevertheless, it is not clear what will happen once the American dollar is no longer the dominant currency. Furthermore, as a matter of policy in terms of grand strategy, Washington has done everything in its power to preserve and enhance the dominant role of its currency as an international unit of account, store of value and medium of exchange. By Joshua Ball Last updated Jun 7, 2019. In other words, “sinking” the greenback might – either directly or indirectly – trigger dire financial, economic, and fiscal dislocations that could engulf the attackers themselves. A remarkable precedent was the time when the Byzantine solidus and the Islamic dinar co-existed as international reserve currencies for several centuries during the Middle Ages. It conveys information that reflects the basic components of a place… When it comes to geopolitics, the key is to build a forecast by first noting the obvious. Plus, Moscow and Beijing know that the role of the dollar is one of the cornerstones of US national power, so it is hardly surprising that it is in their crosshairs. Brand Monitoring. Finally, another card that the US can play in case of dangerous geo-financial turmoil is to resort to its gold reserves in order to back the greenback with the yellow metal once again. An abrupt monetary collapse can unleash widespread chaos derived from a widespread destruction of wealth. It is possible that the US dollar loses its privileged status without being replaced by a clear successor. Military, Politics, Economy, Energy Security, Environment, Commodities Geopolitical Analysis & Forecasting . We provide research, analysis and up to date coverage on situations and events that have a substantive impact on political, military and economic affairs. It is therefore hard to anticipate with a high degree of accuracy what the future will bring regarding the present monetary hegemony. Assessing the geopolitics and motives behind emergence of the Quad’s Leadership Summit. Other factors worth taking into account are the intrinsic volatile nature of contemporary financial markets – which are vulnerable to several kinds of disruptions – the systemic accumulation of unpayable debts, and the implementation of monetary policies that, far from correcting structural imbalances, are actually deepening them. An atlas is a geopolitical cheat sheet. However, the adoption of SDRs as the new international reserve currency would have to face significant obstacles. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. Japan; General elections These will be the first major electoral test for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its new leader since long-time prime minister Abe Shinzo left office in 2020. Moreover, the exchange rate of existing stateless cryptocurrencies (like Bitcoin) is so volatile that –instead of acting as reliable and stable stores of value – they operate like speculative assets. Global Forecast (3-30-2021) Forecasts - March 30, 2021. Given its apt handling of COVID-19 and ongoing US-China tensions, the country is now well placed to lead Southeast Asia’s economic recovery. This configuration would mean the bifurcation of the current financial and monetary order into two or more competing systems, each with its own dominant currency, gold reserves, financial institutions, banking entities and payments mechanisms. Western Balkans Stability Monitor; Reviews . Vietnam Economy Well Positioned for Post-COVID Surge | Geopolitical Monitor Vietnam is one of few nations expecting positive GDP growth in 2020. Moreover, the dollar’s position is severely compromised by irresponsible monetary policies – like endless quantitative easing – and a growing spiral of indebtedness, something that is eroding the confidence it entails, an attribute that used to be taken for granted. OR Purchase a subscription to Geopolitical Futures and recieve a FREE copy of The World Explained in Maps. Finally, one of the main consequences of this would be pronounced regionalization. Meanwhile, geopolitical threats produced large and protracted recessionary effects as well as a decline in stock prices. Far from being static, it is continuously evolving. After all, history provides countless examples that international financial governance and monetary affairs operate like mirrors that reflect the parallel correlation of geopolitical forces prevailing in the international system. Next in our series on strategic commodities we examine tantalum, a conflict mineral with complex geopolitical ramifications for East Africa and beyond. Potential challengers could become increasingly bold and assertive in order to establish their own parallel financial and monetary circuits. October. It could even be argued that the first shots have already been fired in this highly unconventional battle space. geopolitical threats than by actual events, such as the start of a war or imposition of sanctions. Hence, it seems that at least the first generation of cryptocurrencies will only act as a medium of exchange in very specific markets, including some of the deepest corners of the so-called “dark web.”. This would reflect the emergence of multiple geopolitical and economic nerve centers. Zac and Nick discuss what the United States achieved in Afghanistan and how regional interests are primed to reassert themselves once the US military leaves. By Geopolitical Monitor By Try Ananto Wicaksono As the world’s largest producer and consumer of palm oil, the palm oil industry has become an important part of Indonesia’s economy. BIRN. Continuously monitor for the geopolitical risks that matter most — from threats in specific regions to mentions tied to dangerous events. Moreover, the fact that monetary reserves held by central banks are mostly denominated in US dollars provides a disincentive against attacks on the US currency. Monitor your product name, brand, competitors, keywords, authors, or any other topics. For instance, they can only be used by states, but not yet by either companies or individuals. In other words, the current monetary hegemony would be followed by a more fragmentary structure. The scenarios described and examined above illustrate that there are several possible outcomes, all of them heavily shaped by complex geopolitical, economic, financial, and even technological realities. Last week’s brutal Palma attack is fueling concerns of state collapse in northeast Mozambique. Indeed, the first draft of the NPR has already been rejected for not being ‘transformational’ enough [11]. Therefore, there are reasonable doubts and uncertainty about the monetary reliability of the US dollar in the long run. It can potentially become a competitive challenger, but one that would have to overcome substantial structural issues if it intends to catch up. Toronto, Ontario, Canada About Blog Geopolitical Monitor is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service. Week in Review: Geopolitical Posturing in the Balkans. Yet, Washington is not exactly powerless and it is logical to assume that it will not relinquish such an asset without a fight. He is also a regular contributor to KJ Vids YouTube geopolitical channel where he writes video scripts on geopolitical issues. Thus, this is by far the most ominous scenario. Feedspot has over 100k Influential Bloggers database classified in more than 1500 niche categories. In fact, more than one monetary unit can act as reserve currency. This is usually related to the development of formidable maritime power projection capabilities, a condition that is necessary in order to ensure the flow of international trade through secure sea lanes. Geopoliticalmonitor.com is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2021 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. However, it is possible to assess the prospects of plausible scenarios. In fact, this option’s underlying basket could even be widened so it also includes the currencies of emerging markets. In fact, an escalating geopolitical conflict fought in the financial sphere can provoke this very outcome, even if that is not what the contenders intended in the first place. Geopoliticalmonitor.com Feedspot has over 100k Influential Bloggers database classified in more than 1500 niche categories. In other words, the players that control the largest gold holdings would have the chance to define the essential rules in the structural rearrangement of global financial governance. Even though it can be enduring, the global monetary order needs to be understood as a process that is always in flux. Interestingly, Libra – the cryptocurrency Facebook intends to launch – would represent a multilateral currency, but one which is managed by a private company. In fact, some analysts claim that the US dollar has been on life support since the global financial crisis that broke out more than ten years ago. Therefore, the emergence of SDRs as international money offers valuable opportunities for those interested in disabling the dollar’s supremacy, but without worrying about the disruption of financial stability. Geopolitical Monitor is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service. Its might is felt in the domains of military affairs, geopolitics, intelligence, industry, energy, science, culture and technology. Hence, exploring the future of monetary hegemony is a challenging task that requires considering both geopolitical and financial factors. Peru’s presidency is up for grabs in what projects to be one of the most competitive elections in recent memory. Situation Report (600-2,000 words) A situation report takes one pertinent geopolitical topic or issue and analyzes it from all possible angles. The United States is still the world’s most powerful national state. Moreover, it would prevent the structural distortions commonly associated with unipolar monetary hegemony. *This article was originally published on February 20, 2020. Global Security Review Defense & Security. This could be through satellite or non-satellite-based ship monitoring systems with installed transponders in every fishing boat. Geopolitical Monito‪r‬ Geopolitical Monitor News 5.0 • 1 Rating; Listen on Apple Podcasts. The latest version of a global gold standard was dismantled when President Nixon refused to deliver gold in exchange for dollars, as was agreed when the Bretton Woods framework was forged through multilateral negotiations. If they are not effectively contained in a timely manner, their impact can be catastrophic in terms of depth and scope. Intelligence reports delivered right to your inbox, Analysis from our global network of experts. Only time will tell if such plans go as expected, especially considering that this project has sparked heated debates about its implications for national security, personal privacy and the challenges it poses in terms of crafting a monetary policy related to currencies issued by national states with diverging geopolitical and economic interests. A map is essential in this regard. Die Digitalisierung der Welt führt zu einer neuen Krypto-Ökonomie, die … In fact, it looks like – more than ever before – strategic competition is unfolding in the field of finance. Accordingly, they are often the victims of their own success. Fourth Scenario: Rise of a Multilateral Currency. Second Scenario: Replacement by another National Currency. Geopolitics Alert uses occasional moderate loaded words that favor the left such as: “ There’s a great deal to be said about Donald Trump’s pardon for criminal racist Joe Arpaio. In other words, there is no such thing as a perpetual hegemony, either geopolitical or monetary. If London hopes to have any credibility, it must be uniform in its condemnation of sexual violence. Besides, it must not be forgotten that even though the greenback is a fiat currency, it is backed by US power projection capabilities, including a formidable nuclear arsenal. First Scenario: Continued Supremacy of the US Dollar. In the debate concerning the future of monetary hegemony, it has been argued that a global financial order based on gold as its cornerstone could lead to an international system more stable in terms of geopolitical tension or even military conflict. Blogger Outreach or Influencer Marketing. A possibility that arises from this reasoning is the birth of a multilateral currency. For instance, the late Swiss banker Ferdinand Lips explained that, since gold is an asset whose value is determined by its natural scarcity, it promotes fiscal responsibility and sound monetary policies, which would limit the possibility of resorting to endless credit and perpetual debt – both closely associated to fiat money – in order to artificially inflate military budgets and, consequently, war expenditures. In fact, this option’s underlying basket could even be widened so it also includes the currencies of emerging markets. In other words, they are not backed by the national power of any state. Britain’s Voice on Sexual Violence Must Be Consistent | Geopolitical Monitor If London hopes to have any credibility, it must be uniform in its condemnation of sexual violence. Foreign Support It is difficult to establish the degree and scope of external involvement in the Naxalite insurgency. In the grand scheme of things, the so called ‘demonetization’ of gold – the quintessential monetary substance throughout history – is a fairly recent development. As seasoned financial experts explain, financial and monetary crises are a lot like nuclear chain reactions. In geopolitical terms, this idea might be attractive in case the global balance of power is reasonably stable. Likewise, even hypothetical contenders are rather feeble. When it comes to assessing what to expect in the esoteric realm where geopolitics meets finance, there is no crystal ball. Geopolitical Monitor. Centralize your search, alerting, and visualization to detect threats fast with real-time, location-based OSINT intelligence that is dynamically linked, categorized, and updated in every language from social media, the dark web , and more. Hence, the rise of the renminbi is a sign of China’s increasing economic strength. For the US economy, actual events produced a small, but short-lived decline in economic activity with the stock market rising one month after the shock. So far, none of the cryptocurrencies that have been launched is issued by a central bank. Even though the dollar’s position still seems safe for the near future, the hypothetical rise of a parallel financial order anchored to gold as a monetary unit is a possibility that needs to be considered, especially when there are geopolitical incentives to diminish the dollar’s global dominance. In the early part of 2020, the Center for #Preventive #Action named 26 conflicts to its #Global #Conflict #Tracker that were of particular concern to the United States ( #US ). Without such fundamental ingredient, it is unlikely that a stateless currency can become the world’s top monetary standard. Moreover, it would prevent the structural distortions commonly associated with unipolar monetary hegemony. In Latin America, new forms of resistance as well as indigenous concepts of self-determination and autonomy started to question the standard understandings of space. After all, it has become once more an attractive asset for national states, companies, and even individuals. It is even described as a “financial superpower.” Even if its position has been eroded by setbacks, imbalances, and weaknesses, it is foreseeable that the strength of the US dollar will not be matched anytime soon. THE OBAMA NUCLEAR POLICY REVIEW The Obama administration is well aware of the importance of the 2010 NPT review conference, and as such it has been conducting its Nuclear Policy Review (NPR) very carefully. Milos Damnjanovic. In the grand scheme of things, trying to freeze structural change is a demanding endeavor that requires vast amounts of military, economic, and political resources. However, since the stakes are too great, it would be unwise to assume that the outcome will not be shaped by an increasing level of geopolitical tension. Thus, in this case the corresponding projections need to transcend the disciplinary scope of traditional economic science. The most feasible candidate would be something called “Special Drawing Rights,” an artificial asset created as a unit of account by the International Monetary Fund, and whose value is tied to a basket of several currencies. There are several alternative plausible scenarios that need to be examined. The American dollar is undeniably the lifeblood of trade, banking, business and finance all over the world. Reach thousands of authority bloggers and social media influencers in your domain area. Middle East Gamechanger? GEOPOLITICAL.BIZ. This reality fuels reasonable doubts about the long-term prospects of fiat money, in general, and the monetary hegemony of the US dollar, in particular. JUL 12, 2019; What a US-Iran War Would Look Like What a US-Iran War Would Look Like. Therefore, even though the current position of US dollar seems solid at a first glance, alternative prospects deserve to be taken into account, particularly in a context in which the greenback faces structural challenges and is being targeted by a myriad of Washington’s strategic rivals. Moreover, it must be pointed out that the conditions mentioned in these scenarios are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Blogger Outreach or Influencer Marketing. Reach thousands of authority bloggers and social media influencers in your domain area. Listen on Apple Podcasts. Their currencies follow a similar trajectory. However, in this case the dollar could still act as the reserve currency of one of these blocs. Besides, the redefinition of certain financial dynamics as issues that are being dealt with in terms of high strategy because of their ramifications in the field of international and national security is also a phenomenon that cannot be overlooked. In geopolitical terms, this idea might be attractive in case the global balance of power is reasonably stable. Hence, they have been described as the monetary equivalent of Esperanto. Alternative uses of space can contradict the modern geopolitical imagination which is closely tied to the nation-state and its administrative, political and economic categories (Preciado Coronado & Uc 2010: 85). Strategic forecasting is not an exact science, especially when it involves phenomena whose behavior is shaped by several variables. The power of empires inevitably declines after reaching their zenith. Geopolitical tensions will continue to escalate over the course of the next seven years. Nikola writes for several publications such us Geopolitical Monitor, Global Security Review, Global Comment and International Policy Digest, among others. Third Scenario: Geo-Financial Bipolarity or Multipolarity. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/why-consociationalism-…/. Nepalese and Filipino Maoist outfits have long been suspected of providing rhetorical and material support to the CPI(M). Their implementation would demand a substantial degree of technical and political collaboration – something that for the time being appears elusive.

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